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The Canadian Real Estate Association ( CREA ) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® ( MLS® ) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2012 and 2013.


CREA’s previous forecast predicted generally stable resale housing activity in 2012, with growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan offsetting slight sales declines in British Columbia and Ontario. The revised forecast reflects a stronger than expected acceleration of sales activity in Alberta and Saskatchewan, a slightly faster than anticipated slowdown in British Columbia, and continued buoyancy in Ontario sales activity—specifically the Greater Toronto market.


An anticipated recent increase in new listings has so far failed to keep pace with stronger than expected demand in Toronto, which has kept upward pressure on average prices. Forecast sales activity and average price for Ontario have been revised upward as a result.


National resale housing activity is now forecast to reach 475,800 units in 2012, up 3.8 per cent from 2011. Sales for 2013 are now forecast to decline by 1.1 per cent to 470,200 units. Ontario is expected to see the largest decline in activity next year, reflecting a return from currently elevated levels.


“National activity over spring months was stronger than anticipated,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President. “This shows clearly how the continuation of low interest rates is keeping homeownership affordable and within reach.”

CREA had previously forecast sales in 2012 and 2013 that were roughly on par with the 10-year average for annual activity. The updated forecast now predicts activity slightly above the long term average.


The national average home price is forecast to rise by 2.2 per cent to $370,700 in 2012. This is an upward revision from the previously forecast 1.1 per cent decline, reflecting stronger than expected price growth so far this year and compositional impacts on national statistics caused by changes to provincial sales forecasts.


The national average price is also forecast to rise modestly in 2013, edging up two per cent to $378,200.


“CREA’s forecast for annual activity this year has been boosted by what’s already in the rearview mirror,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Activity is still expected to recede, but from a higher level than previously anticipated. The pace for interest rate increases next year is expected to be very slow and gradual, so combined with further job growth, Canada’s housing market should remain resilient.”



Edmonton, June 4, 2012: Home buyers in Edmonton are facing one of the most affordable markets in Canada according to a recent RBC market survey. That is confirmed by month end figures released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton for residential property sold in May through the Multiple Listing Service® System. RBC reported that the housing affordability index for Edmonton was just 32.4% of a typical household income. Increases in the affordability index in other parts of the country are influenced by higher real estate prices.


“While housing prices are higher in Edmonton than last month, they are inching up in manageable increments,” said REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Doug Singleton. “The total amount a home buyer has available for a home purchase is based on the amount they can afford to pay each month. When affordability ratios are low, as they are in Edmonton, the buyer has more confidence in their ability to meet all of their living expenses.” The strong economy with resilient consumer confidence has resulted in strong housing sales in this market and relative price stability.


In May, the average1 residential price was up 3.2% from last month at $348,196. The average price of a single family detached home was $388,762, up 1.7% from the previous month. The average price of a condominium in May was $248,846, up 5.9% from April. Duplex and rowhouse properties sold on average for $310,991; a 5.5% drop from the previous month.


The median3 price for a single family detached home was the highest it has been in five years. Half of the homes sold last month were under $370,000 while an equal number of sales were priced over that figure. In 2008 the median price was $365,000. The median price for condominiums last month was $232,000 which is lower than the 2008 median ($250,000) reflecting a market change that results in higher sales of smaller (and therefore cheaper) condominium properties.


The average days-on-market in May was down one at 49 days and the sales-to-listing ratio was stable at 53%. REALTORS® participated in the sale of over $811 million worth of residential property last month and total MLS® activity for the year is $3.1 billion.


“Many financial planners advise that homeowners should spend a third of their income on housing (mortgage, utilities and property taxes),” said Singleton. “Edmonton is bucking a national trend and making housing more affordable than other cities.” According to RBC the affordability index for Toronto was 53.4% of income and Vancouver was 88.9%.




Activity (for all residential sales on Edmonton MLS® System)


2 Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses
3 Single Family Dwelling
4 The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
5 Includes residential, rural and commercial sales

1 Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual changes for a particular property, which may vary from house to house and area to area. Prior period figures have been adjusted to include late reported sales and cancellations and therefore reflect a more accurate view of the period than previously reported at month end.

Copyright 2024 by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. All Rights Reserved.
Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.
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